Same-month sales up nearly across the board in Oregon & Southern Washington
Sales activity continued to outpace levels from the same month last year in the latest RMLS™ Market Action report. Inventory was also down in several areas, including Lane County, Portland and Clark County.
Sales Activity:
Both pending and closed sales increased in 9 out of 10 of the regions that we cover when compared to the same month in 2008. The Portland metro area saw its largest increase in closed sales since January 2005 , which was also the highest total of closed sales since August 2007. Clark County set a record for pending sales, with an increase of 56.9% compared to last October. Here’s a recap of each region’s same-month sales activity:
It will be interesting to see if this trend of increased sales activity will continue this fall and winter season. The percentage increases were not surprising this month, given the recent strength in sales and considering that last year we saw sales begin to drop in October, kicking off a stretch of slow sales activity that would extend into the first quarter of 2009.
Inventory:
Housing inventory levels dropped in several key areas, including Lane County (6.2 months), Portland (6.5 months, lowest since August 2007) and Clark County (6.4 months, lowest since September 2006). This is somewhat counterintuitive, as inventory levels have often increased as we head into the slower fall and winter seasons. But, considering the following factors, it’s no surprise:
- Low interest rates
- New listings continue to drop in most areas, reducing the supply of homes available
- The perceived tax credit deadline (which has since been extended)
- Lower home prices
What do you think?
Realtors – what do you think? Where do you see the market heading? Have you heard increased interest from buyers and sellers since the tax credit extension/expansion? Comment below!
According to the IHS Global Insight quarterly housing valuation report (see http://www.ihsglobalinsight.com/gcpath/2Q2009ValuationReportjd4.pdf), 7 out of 10 most overpriced RE market in the US are in OR and WA. This part of the country has peaked about a year after the nation-wide peak in house prices (Q3 of 2007 vs. Q2 of 2006) and it’s a long way to the bottom from here.
The key indicators one need to focus on are not the monthly sales, which will likely fall going forward, but the economic fundamentals (population growth, unemployment rate, affordability ratios, income growth, etc.) and lead inventory indicators (number of NOD’s, foreclosures, percentage of loan mod failing, mortgage delinquency rates, etc.). Virtually of the lead indicators show that the prices in OR and WA are likely to fall much further from current levels. This is consistent with this week’s Case-Shiller Index release, which indicates that prices in Portland an Seattle metro areas have fallen in September.