How does this affect Washington and Oregon?
A new Brookings Institute study predicts the future of real estate is in “walkable cities,” described as, “walkable, accessible communities with convenient transit linkages and good public services like libraries, cultural activities, and health care.” This is good news for Oregon and Washington, an area of the country particularly rich with interesting, walkable (and bikeable, of course) towns!
According to the report, the new real estate boom will come from the “Millennial” generation, or the kids of the Baby Boomers, born between 1977 and 1994, who amount to 76 million of our country’s population. (Full disclosure: I am one of those 76 million.) The report claims that Millennial aspirations “have been informed by ‘Friends’ and ‘Sex in the City’, shows set in walkable urban places, as opposed to their parents’ mid-century imagery of ‘Leave It to Beaver’ and ‘The Brady Bunch,’ set in the drivable suburbs.” (Unfortunately, the above examples of ‘Friends’ and ‘Sex in the City’ don’t quite match the ideal, walkable, transit-oriented neighborhoods described elsewhere in the report, since both shows were set in New York City. But that’s beside the point.)
Rest assured: this study does not mean that Millennials will flock to Portland and abandon Oregon’s smaller towns. In fact, the report uses as a prime example Utah’s preparations for the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City. In addition to building up Salt Lake City, Utah built up the entire surrounding four-county area to create a large variety of “dense walkable neighborhoods built around transit stops.” Additionally, Portland is used as an example of transit directly benefitting real estate, stating that the city’s decision to spend $50 million on the downtown streetcar created $3.5 billion in private-sector development around the streetcar lines.
The best news in the report simply counteracts the onslaught of bad housing news the media seems to focus on these days. Simply put, when the Millennials begin buying houses, they will constitute the largest market of first-time homebuyers in history. This is good news for everyone. Similarly, with a focus on public transit and less of a reliance on personal cars, homeowners will have more cash on hand. The study cites an astonishing figure: Cutting one car out of the typical household budget can allow that family to afford a $100,000 larger mortgage.
Overall, this spells good news for Oregon and Washington, which contain a wide variety of interesting, green communities (both large and small) that greatly appeal to Millennials. As this generation begins to wade into the housing market, the future of the real estate market in the Pacific Northwest looks very hopeful.